High competition or low competition is better to develop?

Some books (The Millionaire Fastlane) suggests that to succeed at a buisness you need to look for the least crowded market, while others (Zero To One) suggests that it’s better considering an already existing market and provide better service?

Both are valid methods but they have different characteristics. On one end are the commodity markets like milk, sugar, flour, gasoline, or eggs. Can you break into these markets? Yes, but you will need a lot of money.

On the other end are market innovators. Apple, Space X, Tesla, and such. Can you create a new customer base from scratch in these markets? Yes, but you’ll need deep pockets.

So the “trick” is to find middle ground where there are established customers, but not so many providers that you are unable to carve out a niche.

Lets “pretend” that Google searches are people buying stuff. It’s actually a blend of buyers and information seekers, but we’ll just pretend that all searches are buyers.

So lets investigate the market. Google Adwords will give you a hard number (ish) , but Google trends is very good for comparing searches.

Lets look at the trend for “Face Masks”. You will notice an increase over the last 12 months.

Yes, an increase, but we all know where to get a face mask, so the searches are calming down. Now lets add Camping Trailers. I will change the time frame so you can see the cycles better.

So you can see here that “Camping Trailers” searches have a yearly cycle and it bounces every year, low and high. So….I’ll let you in on a secret that online marketers are aware of. If the market is as low as the blue line normally is, its a tiny market. If a market is as high as the blue line jumps on the right side, it is too huge and odds are it is flooded with dreamers wanting a piece of that pie. And they will spend a ton of money to “Grab” a piece of that dream. (Take note that the color of the lines change depending on where you enter them when using this tool.)

So the kind of popularity you are looking for is the red line in this example. If your market is a close match to “Camping Trailers”, then it has a good popularity of not too big, not too small. So pick your potential keyword phrase and compare it to “Camping Trailers”. Yes you can be higher or lower. But if you are matching closely, then you have the best opportunity.

The phrase should be a phrase that suggests “action.” I mean, you can check the popularity of “Green” and it will be huge. But check “Green Roof” and you will be better off because the phrase is closer to the “action” of building a green roof. Perhaps even one with grass growing on it.

By the way…if you want to teach people about “green roofs”…go ahead …..that’s a good market I just stumbled on while writing this. It has interest and it has “problems” and people will pay you to help solve their problems. He who solves the most problems, gets rich.

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